Every run since September 2025
Stats
Weekly distance
The dashed line is week 1. Everything left of it is what happened; the solid red line is what the plan asks for. The shape of the gap is the whole job.
Training load
Training slightly harder than you are conditioned for, which is exactly where fitness is built.
Fatigue, planned against actual
Over the last 28 days of the block you have done 109% of the load the plan asked for.
The shaded area is the 7-day fatigue this plan asks for, day by day. The line is what you have actually carried. Where the line sits below the area you are behind the plan; above it and you are doing more than was asked, which is its own risk.
Acute:chronic ratio, expected against actual
Today your ratio is 1.07 against the 1.09 the plan expected.
Fatigue (7 days) divided by fitness (42 days), at the end of each day so it includes that day's run. Blue is the ratio had every day gone to plan, black is the one you actually ran. Below 0.8 you are losing fitness; 0.8 to 1.3 is where fitness is built; above 1.5 is the zone that precedes injuries. Long-run days spike it briefly and that is normal; what matters is that it comes back down.
Accumulated load, expected against actual
Since 7 Sep you have banked 1619 of the 1262 the plan expected by now, 357 ahead. The whole block asks for 4583.
Every day's load added to the running total since week 1. The chart above shows whether this week matches the plan; this one shows whether the block as a whole does. A missed week leaves a step that does not close up on its own, and a line that rises faster than the area is the start of the too-big week the 10% rule exists to stop.
Fitness and fatigue
Fitness 23.9 against 20.2 expected · fatigue 29.1 against 25.2 expected.
Fitness (chronic training load) is a 42-day average of daily load: slow to build, slow to lose. Fatigue (acute training load) is a 7-day one and swings with every week. Solid lines are what you ran, dashed lines what the plan would have produced. The gap between the two solid lines is the form chart below. Fitness is the line that has to climb into February; the dashed blue line is how far the plan expects it to go.
Form: Training Stress Balance
Carrying the fatigue that builds fitness. Where most of a training block should sit.
Fitness 23.9 · fatigue 29.1 · plan expected -4.9 (-24%)
Fitness is a 42-day average of daily load, fatigue a 7-day one, and form is the first minus the second, read as of the morning so it never includes the day's own run. Below zero you are carrying fatigue, which is how a block builds fitness: the green band is where most of it should sit, and below it is overreaching. Above zero the fatigue has cleared, and the blue band is where race morning should land. The load is Strava's relative effort, not TrainingPeaks' TSS, so form is shown as a percentage of fitness rather than against TSS thresholds. The blue line is the form the plan expected, had every day of the block gone exactly to plan; the black line is what you actually did, continued as a thin dashed projection from today. Black above blue means you are fresher than planned, usually from a missed session; below it, more tired than planned.
Load is scored on heart rate rather than distance, so an easy hour and a hard hour do not count the same. The figure at the top is fatigue over fitness right now; “plan peaks at” is the highest the plan takes it on a training day. Race day itself hits 1.81, which is simply what a marathon is and is excluded from that figure.
Did the easy days stay easy?
Easy and long runs only. Running them too hard is the one mistake a pace-and-distance grade cannot see, and the one this block is built to stop.
Running form
At Osaka the legs gave out before the heart did, so these numbers are worth watching. Compare runs at the same pace: a quicker run raises cadence and stride length all by itself. Over the block, look for cadence creeping up and ground contact coming down at easy pace. That shows a quicker, lighter step, not a longer reach.
Cadence
173 spm · higher is betterGround contact
246 ms · lower is betterVertical oscillation
7.9 cm · lower is betterStride length
0.7 m · higher is betterFilled dots are easy days, the like-for-like read. Hollow dots are long runs and quality sessions, which change form by their pace alone. Hover a dot for its pace.
| Run | Pace | Cadence | Contact | Stride | Bounce |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov · 7.5 km | 7:26 | 173 spm | 246 ms | 0.70 m | 7.9 cm |
| 10 Nov · 10.5 km | 7:15 | 170 spm | 237 ms | 0.80 m | 8.3 cm |
| 7 Nov · 20.0 km | 7:57 | 161 spm | 277 ms | 0.70 m | 8.2 cm |
| 4 Nov · 8.4 km | 7:29 | 171 spm | 252 ms | 0.70 m | 8.2 cm |
| 3 Nov · 7.0 km | 8:10 | 166 spm | 246 ms | 0.70 m | 9.1 cm |
| 31 Oct · 15.0 km | 7:50 | 161 spm | 276 ms | 0.70 m | 8.2 cm |
| 29 Oct · 6.3 km | 7:06 | 162 spm | 270 ms | 0.80 m | 8.4 cm |
| 24 Oct · 18.0 km | 7:55 | 159 spm | 271 ms | 0.70 m | 8.7 cm |
| 23 Oct · 5.0 km | 6:13 | 163 spm | 251 ms | 0.90 m | 9.5 cm |
| 21 Oct · 11.0 km | 8:11 | 158 spm | 308 ms | 0.70 m | 9 cm |
| 20 Oct · 10.0 km | 8:04 | 161 spm | 300 ms | 0.70 m | 8.9 cm |
| 13 Oct · 8.3 km | 7:25 | 166 spm | 274 ms | 0.80 m | 8.8 cm |
| 11 Oct · 16.0 km | 7:58 | 160 spm | 284 ms | 0.70 m | 8.4 cm |
| 8 Oct · 7.0 km | 7:31 | 164 spm | 277 ms | 0.80 m | 8.9 cm |
| 6 Oct · 9.5 km | 7:45 | 163 spm | 255 ms | 0.70 m | 8.6 cm |
| 5 Oct · 8.0 km | 8:17 | 159 spm | 270 ms | 0.80 m | 9.8 cm |
| 3 Oct · 14.1 km | 7:51 | 152 spm | 296 ms | 0.80 m | 8.9 cm |
| 1 Oct · 7.0 km | 7:45 | 159 spm | 264 ms | 0.80 m | 8.9 cm |
| 30 Sep · 6.7 km | 7:54 | 166 spm | — | — | — |
| 29 Sep · 6.0 km | 7:58 | 164 spm | — | — | — |
| 23 Sep · 7.5 km | 8:01 | 159 spm | — | — | — |
| 17 Sep · 8.0 km | 8:17 | 151 spm | — | — | — |
| 15 Sep · 7.0 km | 8:34 | 155 spm | — | — | — |
Race time prediction
Week 7 5 km time trial, 23 Oct 2026 (31:07) — Riegel turns 31:07 into 2:23 for the half and 4:58 for the full, and the 5 km was run at 146 bpm on average, not flat out, so the engine may be quicker than that. The full is held at 5:20 because a 5 km says nothing about whether the legs last 42 km, which is what failed at Kyoto and Osaka. This is fitness today, seventeen weeks out, not a race-day forecast.
Personal bests
- 5 km
- 31:07
- 10 km
- 1:11:38
- Half marathon
- 2:37:00
- 30 km
- 3:50:07
- Marathon
- 5:46:29
Every one of these was set inside the Osaka marathon. A standalone 10 km or half would almost certainly beat them, which is part of what the decision gates are for.
Milestones
- Longest run
- 42.8 km
- Biggest week
- 45.8 km
- Weeks under 10 km
- 13 of 54
- Boom-bust crashes
- 7
A crash is a week over 25 km followed immediately by a week under 12 km. It has happened seven times in a year. The plan's down weeks exist so this never has to happen again.
Shoe rotation
1178.7 km of shoe against 811.9 km of block. The rotation covers it.
New Balance 1080v15
Easy & long days165.3 / 700 kmBought in week 2, on schedule for the 20 September target. First run in it was Thursday's 8 km easy — the everyday shoe the rotation was missing.
New Balance Rebel v5
Quality days56 / 700 kmThe only shoe left in the rotation. Light and lively, which makes it right for threshold, hills and the time trials — and wrong for the 32 km long runs. Keep it for the fast work and it lasts the whole block.
Badges
Marathoner
Osaka Marathon, 22 February 2026.
Twenty Club
Longest run so far: 42.8 km. First 20 km is week 8.
First Steps
Finish week 1 of the block.
Four in a Row
Best streak of weeks at 80% of plan: 3.
Hill Seeker
Best week for climbing: 1123 m. Target 300 m.
Iron Month
Best month: 160 km. Target 200 km.
Thirty Club
Run 30 km in one go. Scheduled for week 15.
Gate Keeper
Pass a decision gate. First one is week 7: 5 km time trial.
Half Slayer
Half marathon ≤ 2:15. Week 19.
Kyoto Finisher
Cross the line at Heian-jingū.