Kyoto 2027京都まで

Every run since September 2025

Stats

Since September 2025
Runs logged
195
Distance
1,411km
Time on feet
183h
Climbed
5,033m
This training block · since 7 Sep
Runs logged
43
Distance
312.5km
Time on feet
40.7h
Climbed
2,216m

Weekly distance

past Osaka this block the plan

The dashed line is week 1. Everything left of it is what happened; the solid red line is what the plan asks for. The shape of the gap is the whole job.

Training load

Right now · 7d / 42d
1.07
Productive

Training slightly harder than you are conditioned for, which is exactly where fitness is built.

Plan peaks at
1.48
12 of 98 days above 1.3

Fatigue, planned against actual

planned actual

Over the last 28 days of the block you have done 109% of the load the plan asked for.

The shaded area is the 7-day fatigue this plan asks for, day by day. The line is what you have actually carried. Where the line sits below the area you are behind the plan; above it and you are doing more than was asked, which is its own risk.

Acute:chronic ratio, expected against actual

expected actual

Today your ratio is 1.07 against the 1.09 the plan expected.

Fatigue (7 days) divided by fitness (42 days), at the end of each day so it includes that day's run. Blue is the ratio had every day gone to plan, black is the one you actually ran. Below 0.8 you are losing fitness; 0.8 to 1.3 is where fitness is built; above 1.5 is the zone that precedes injuries. Long-run days spike it briefly and that is normal; what matters is that it comes back down.

Accumulated load, expected against actual

expected actual

Since 7 Sep you have banked 1619 of the 1262 the plan expected by now, 357 ahead. The whole block asks for 4583.

Every day's load added to the running total since week 1. The chart above shows whether this week matches the plan; this one shows whether the block as a whole does. A missed week leaves a step that does not close up on its own, and a line that rises faster than the area is the start of the too-big week the 10% rule exists to stop.

Fitness and fatigue

fitness, CTL fatigue, ATL expected

Fitness 23.9 against 20.2 expected · fatigue 29.1 against 25.2 expected.

Fitness (chronic training load) is a 42-day average of daily load: slow to build, slow to lose. Fatigue (acute training load) is a 7-day one and swings with every week. Solid lines are what you ran, dashed lines what the plan would have produced. The gap between the two solid lines is the form chart below. Fitness is the line that has to climb into February; the dashed blue line is how far the plan expects it to go.

Form: Training Stress Balance

expected actual
Today
-5.2
-22% of fitness
Building

Carrying the fatigue that builds fitness. Where most of a training block should sit.

Fitness 23.9 · fatigue 29.1 · plan expected -4.9 (-24%)

Race morning
+9.1
+31% · losing fitness

Fitness is a 42-day average of daily load, fatigue a 7-day one, and form is the first minus the second, read as of the morning so it never includes the day's own run. Below zero you are carrying fatigue, which is how a block builds fitness: the green band is where most of it should sit, and below it is overreaching. Above zero the fatigue has cleared, and the blue band is where race morning should land. The load is Strava's relative effort, not TrainingPeaks' TSS, so form is shown as a percentage of fitness rather than against TSS thresholds. The blue line is the form the plan expected, had every day of the block gone exactly to plan; the black line is what you actually did, continued as a thin dashed projection from today. Black above blue means you are fresher than planned, usually from a missed session; below it, more tired than planned.

Load is scored on heart rate rather than distance, so an easy hour and a hard hour do not count the same. The figure at the top is fatigue over fitness right now; “plan peaks at” is the highest the plan takes it on a training day. Race day itself hits 1.81, which is simply what a marathon is and is excluded from that figure.

Did the easy days stay easy?

Time under 140 bpm

Easy and long runs only. Running them too hard is the one mistake a pace-and-distance grade cannot see, and the one this block is built to stop.

  • Wk 1
    55%
  • Wk 2
    99%
  • Wk 3
    87%
  • Wk 4
    69%
  • Wk 5
    86%
  • Wk 6
    89%
  • Wk 7
    95%
  • Wk 8
    86%
  • Wk 9
    76%
  • Wk 10
    100%

Running form

From Apple Health

At Osaka the legs gave out before the heart did, so these numbers are worth watching. Compare runs at the same pace: a quicker run raises cadence and stride length all by itself. Over the block, look for cadence creeping up and ground contact coming down at easy pace. That shows a quicker, lighter step, not a longer reach.

Cadence

173 spm · higher is better

Ground contact

246 ms · lower is better

Vertical oscillation

7.9 cm · lower is better

Stride length

0.7 m · higher is better

Filled dots are easy days, the like-for-like read. Hollow dots are long runs and quality sessions, which change form by their pace alone. Hover a dot for its pace.

RunPaceCadenceContactStrideBounce
11 Nov · 7.5 km7:26173 spm246 ms0.70 m7.9 cm
10 Nov · 10.5 km7:15170 spm237 ms0.80 m8.3 cm
7 Nov · 20.0 km7:57161 spm277 ms0.70 m8.2 cm
4 Nov · 8.4 km7:29171 spm252 ms0.70 m8.2 cm
3 Nov · 7.0 km8:10166 spm246 ms0.70 m9.1 cm
31 Oct · 15.0 km7:50161 spm276 ms0.70 m8.2 cm
29 Oct · 6.3 km7:06162 spm270 ms0.80 m8.4 cm
24 Oct · 18.0 km7:55159 spm271 ms0.70 m8.7 cm
23 Oct · 5.0 km6:13163 spm251 ms0.90 m9.5 cm
21 Oct · 11.0 km8:11158 spm308 ms0.70 m9 cm
20 Oct · 10.0 km8:04161 spm300 ms0.70 m8.9 cm
13 Oct · 8.3 km7:25166 spm274 ms0.80 m8.8 cm
11 Oct · 16.0 km7:58160 spm284 ms0.70 m8.4 cm
8 Oct · 7.0 km7:31164 spm277 ms0.80 m8.9 cm
6 Oct · 9.5 km7:45163 spm255 ms0.70 m8.6 cm
5 Oct · 8.0 km8:17159 spm270 ms0.80 m9.8 cm
3 Oct · 14.1 km7:51152 spm296 ms0.80 m8.9 cm
1 Oct · 7.0 km7:45159 spm264 ms0.80 m8.9 cm
30 Sep · 6.7 km7:54166 spm———
29 Sep · 6.0 km7:58164 spm———
23 Sep · 7.5 km8:01159 spm———
17 Sep · 8.0 km8:17151 spm———
15 Sep · 7.0 km8:34155 spm———

Race time prediction

As of 23 Oct
Half marathon
2:25:00
6:52 /km
Marathon
5:20:00
7:35 /km
20:00 outside sub-5:00

Week 7 5 km time trial, 23 Oct 2026 (31:07) — Riegel turns 31:07 into 2:23 for the half and 4:58 for the full, and the 5 km was run at 146 bpm on average, not flat out, so the engine may be quicker than that. The full is held at 5:20 because a 5 km says nothing about whether the legs last 42 km, which is what failed at Kyoto and Osaka. This is fitness today, seventeen weeks out, not a race-day forecast.

Personal bests

5 km
31:07
10 km
1:11:38
Half marathon
2:37:00
30 km
3:50:07
Marathon
5:46:29

Every one of these was set inside the Osaka marathon. A standalone 10 km or half would almost certainly beat them, which is part of what the decision gates are for.

Milestones

Longest run
42.8 km
Biggest week
45.8 km
Weeks under 10 km
13 of 54
Boom-bust crashes
7

A crash is a week over 25 km followed immediately by a week under 12 km. It has happened seven times in a year. The plan's down weeks exist so this never has to happen again.

Shoe rotation

1178.7 km of shoe against 811.9 km of block. The rotation covers it.

  • New Balance 1080v15

    Easy & long days165.3 / 700 km

    Bought in week 2, on schedule for the 20 September target. First run in it was Thursday's 8 km easy — the everyday shoe the rotation was missing.

  • New Balance Rebel v5

    Quality days56 / 700 km

    The only shoe left in the rotation. Light and lively, which makes it right for threshold, hills and the time trials — and wrong for the 32 km long runs. Keep it for the fast work and it lasts the whole block.

Badges

5/10
  • Marathoner

    Osaka Marathon, 22 February 2026.

  • Twenty Club

    Longest run so far: 42.8 km. First 20 km is week 8.

  • First Steps

    Finish week 1 of the block.

  • Four in a Row

    Best streak of weeks at 80% of plan: 3.

  • Hill Seeker

    Best week for climbing: 1123 m. Target 300 m.

  • Iron Month

    Best month: 160 km. Target 200 km.

  • Thirty Club

    Run 30 km in one go. Scheduled for week 15.

  • Gate Keeper

    Pass a decision gate. First one is week 7: 5 km time trial.

  • Half Slayer

    Half marathon ≤ 2:15. Week 19.

  • Kyoto Finisher

    Cross the line at Heian-jingū.